Международное предпринимательство - Ерохин В.Л.
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1) the complete liberalization of the market;
2) the partial liberalization of the market (the existing level of the
customs tariffs decreases on 36 % within 5 years, i.e. on 7,2 %
annually). Such variant is supposed under the WTO charter at
the accession of the new country;
3) a situation, when the Russian side will be successful in defending
the position with the optimum protection of the Russian agrarian
producers on the domestic agricultural market (tab. 14.1).
We created the model, which analyzes the matrix 6x6 (6 integrated
regions on 6 integrated commodity groups).
6 regions are Russia, CIS countries, EU, East Asia, NAFTA
countries, and others.
6 commodity groups are: sugar, meat (including poultry), grain,
industrial goods, services, other agricultural products.
For the analysis of the received results the following parameters
- Dynamics of import and export on each commodity group;
- Dynamics of manufacture on each commodity group;
- Dynamics of the investments and GDP of the country;
- Dynamics of the country wealth.
Using the given model, we shall carry out the analysis of
consequences of the Russian accession to WTO for the development
of Russian agriculture within the framework of three scripts.
Script 1. Complete liberalization
It is obvious, that at complete liberalization of the agricultural
market the import of meat products in Russia will increase to the
greatest degree, since the given commodity group is under the greatest
quotas today (fig. 14.1). The import of meat at the Russian accession
to WTO will increase more than twice. The Russian producers provide
today not more than 50 % of all meat consumption in the country. It
is obvious that the cheap import will put appreciable impact on the
Russian meat producers.
The significant import growth will be observed in the case with
sugar. Today the sugar consumption in Russia on 75-80 % is provided
by the import.
By grain and other agricultural products we can predict the
insignificant import growth.
On agricultural export we can observe the growth on all the
commodity groups (fig. 14.2).
The significant reduction of trade barriers will cause the export
growth. But if we pay attention to the absolute parameters, it will be
possible to notice, that the export of agricultural products after the
WTO accession will not cover import even on 10 %.
The agricultural production will decrease, the GDP will decrease
on 3 %, the investments will be reduced on 0,8 % (fig. 14.3). But,
despite of such negative parameters, at complete liberalization of the
agricultural market the general wealth of the country will increase on
$1,3 bin. (because of the redistribution of the money resources to the
more profitable manufactures).
However, it is necessary to note, that the Script 1 of complete trade
liberalization is improbable. It is more theoretical model. In the
greater degree it is possible to expect the realization of the Script 2,
i.e.partial market liberalization.
Script 2. Partial market liberalization
The import of agricultural products in Russia is still increased, but
already in a smaller degree (fig. 14.4). The import of meat products will
increase by 29 %, import of sugar - on 15 %. As well as in the Script
1, the import of grain will not change. It is expected, that the import
under the given script will grow gradually depending on the same
gradual reduction of trade barriers on 36 % during the five years'
The situation with export is similar - the export grows, but by
smaller rates, than in the case of theoretical complete market
liberalization (fig. 14.5). It is connected, first of all, to the preservation
of counter higher requirements to the domestic export from the
Nevertheless, the volume of agricultural production is still decreasing
The fact of recession of manufacture at partial and gradual market
liberalization at the WTO accession tells that any attempt to free the
access to the domestic market leads to the reduction of own manufacture.
It has especially significant effect when the exporter is actively subsidized
by the government. At the Script 2 the GDP will decrease on 1 %, the
investments will decrease on 0,2 %.
Script 3. Modern situation
Scri pt 3 can be considered as the close to the Scri pt 1, to theoretical
model. But the modern stage of the agricultural negotiations shows that
the Russian side had defended its trade positions in agriculture and the
trade barriers for agricultural products will not change significantly.
Import of agricultural products is reduced under such circumstances
(in particular, import of grain). On the other commodity groups import
grows unsignificantly (fig. 14.7).
Export also grows (because of the back measures of the countries on