Международное предпринимательство - Ерохин В.Л.
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2) the research of the consequences of the obligations on the market
access for goods and services;
3) the research of the opportunities of use the protection mechanisms
for the domestic market in the case of dumping or application of
the foreign subsidies.
Thus the consequences of the WTO obligations acceptance can carry
both qualitative character, for example the legislation change, and
quantitative character, for example manufacture and import dynamics
and ratio, which can be observed and estimated statistically.
The analysis of the probable Russian obligations in the field of the
legislation change and the application of the trade rules has shown, that
the acceptance of the WTO norms and rules will not create the essential
negative economic consequences for Russia. The application of Most
Favoured Nation Regime can result in some aggravation of the foreign
competition on the Russian market. However the probable difficulties
will be compensated due to the increase of the transparency, higher
predictability of the authorities' actions and the elimination of the
unjustified restrictions in the market.
As a whole, the substantial performance of the WTO norms and
rules in the given area will not result in basic changes of the trade
regulation mechanisms, and also will not cause the significant growth
of import and sharp change of the competition conditions of the foreign
and domestic goods on the Russian market.
On the contrary, the change of the legislation can become the factor
of the increase of the competitiveness of the Russian enterprises
because of the elimination of some excessive restrictions, formation of
the healthy competitive environment with equal and nondiscrimination
conditions of enterprise activity, and also increase of the transparency
level of the legislation and regulation measures.
The basic precondition of the successful overcoming of the problems
in the field of the legislation transformation and use of its advantages
in the frameworks of WTO is the effective continuation of the process
of the legislation perfection within the framework of the Russian
economic reforms. First of all, the excessive administrative pressure on
the enterprises should be eliminated and the degree of the legislation
transparency should be increased.
The results of the detailed quantitative analysis of the consequences
of the market access obligations show that the essential negative
consequences are improbable. The key factors, which will determine
the rates of the industry development, will be the factors that are not
connected directly to the probable WTO obligations - first of all, the
internal economic factors. It is possible to assume, that the probable
changes in the conditions of the market access for the foreign goods
will not significantly effect on the conditions of competition of the
domestic and foreign goods on the Russian market and will not result in
the essential negative consequences for the Russian economy.
The given conclusions are fair for all considered basic scripts of the
individual obligations acceptance: the establishment of the import tariffs
at the "binding" level according to the tariff offers during the transitive
period, freezing of the tariffs at the current level with the subsequent
reduction according to the tariff offers during the transitive period, the
variant with the probable changes of practice of VAT and customs taxes
All these scripts were compared to the base variant, which provides
the preservation of the current rates of the customs tariffs:
1) the first script - initial. The economic development is carried
out proceeding from the current tariff, budget and tax policy. The
script corresponds to the preservation of the existing situation in
case of non-accession or accession at the preservation of the
current rates of the import customs tariffs;
2) the second script. The economic development was predicted in
view of the Russian offers on "binding" of the customs tariff rates.
It was assumed that in all cases the opportunities of the tariff
increase will be completely used within the framework of the
"binded" levels. Also it was assumed the gradual reduction of the
tariff rates during the transitive periods on the appropriate positions
of the customs tariff;
3) the third script - similar to the second, but without the
assumption of the probable increase of the tariffs up to the
"binded" levels, i.e. the change of the tariffs was assumed only
in the way of downturn.
As a whole the forecasted changes of the trade regime will not cause
the more essential changes of the tariff system, than were observed in
last 6-7 years. It is obvious, that under the condition of the
preservation in the Russian economy the tendency to the economic
stabilization and further adaptation of the enterprises to the conditions